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30.03.15 – Bitcoin – Weekly Preview

Price at Bitfinex below temporary resistance | Daily time interval

On the long side: For the past 6 days there has not been any significant change regarding potential upside targets. Temporary resistance is established at $248 (orange dashed line). A strong breach will possibly retest $255 intermediate resistance (pink dashed line) and a continuation will find resistance at $262 (white blue dashed line). Upper target is estimated at $267, which is the 24.03.15 confirmed rejection point (red dashed line).

On the short side: Temporary support is approximately at $240 (white dashed line). A reversal will increase the possibilities of reaching the $232-$235 support area (double green dashed lines). Our models suggest that if $232 (support area lower range) is taken out with conviction, then $228 is the next nearest support (blue dashed line).

300315 - Bitfinex - BTCUSD

30.03.15 – Bitfinex – Daily Candlestick Chart

Overall: Yesterday’s breakdown was relatively minor compared to the one on 24.03.15. Moreover, today’s price action indicates that market is trying to find temporary support but is still moving in a relatively wide range. RSI has been flat for the past 6 days and must reverse at least above <43 to hint improvement. MACD is under negative pressure since 25.03.15, although, it currently paints a possible converging pattern. Finally, Stochastic is in the process of developing a small positive divergence.

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $267

Long Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal above $248 – Price Target $255 | Probability: 35%
  2. On a confirmed signal above $255 – Price Target $262 | Probability: 32%
  3. On a confirmed signal above $262 – Price Target $267 | Probability: 26%

Neutral: Price Range $240-$248

Short: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $228

Short Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal below $240 – Price Target $235 | Probability: 25%
  2. On a confirmed signal below $235 – Price Target $232 | Probability: 19%
  3. On a confirmed signal below $232 – Price Target $228 | Probability: 33%

Our Stance: Neutral on average. Willing to enter longs with very tight stops. Market is still fragile.


Price at Bitstamp below temporary resistance | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above $247 – Potential Target $266 | Probability: 41%
Neutral: Price Range $241-$247 | Probability: 21%
Short: On a confirmed signal below $241 – Potential Target $229 | Probability: 38%


Price at BTCe below temporary resistance | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above $246 – Potential Target $263 | Probability: 41%
Neutral: Price Range $238-$246 | Probability: 21%
Short: On a confirmed signal below $238 – Potential Target $224 | Probability: 38%


Price at Kraken below temporary resistance | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above €229 – Potential Target €246 | Probability: 41%
Neutral: Price Range €221-€229 | Probability: 21%
Short: On a confirmed signal below €221 – Potential Target €205 | Probability: 38%


Price at OKCoin below temporary resistance | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above ¥1540 – Potential Target ¥1638 | Probability: 41%
Neutral: Price Range ¥1492-¥1540 | Probability: 21%
Short: On a confirmed signal below ¥1492 – Potential Target ¥1373 | Probability: 38%


Price at Huobi below temporary resistance | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above ¥1538 – Potential Target ¥1633 | Probability: 41%
Neutral: Price Range ¥1498-¥1538 | Probability: 21%
Short: On a confirmed signal below ¥1498 – Potential Target ¥1380 | Probability: 38%

 

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