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27.04.15 – Bitcoin – Weekly Preview

Price at Bitfinex testing declining resistance | Daily time interval

On the long side: During the past hour, a violent move to the upside managed to pierce through temporary resistance at $227 (orange dashed line). This quick breakout has met declining resistance (see 12hr chart), which is in correlation with the daily intermediate resistance at $232 (purple dashed line). If this move is healthy, it will probably test $236 triple rejection (red dashed line), which is a quite strong resistance point.

On the short side: Lower targets have not changed. However, a reversal below $220 temporary resistance (green dashed line) is required to initiate significant selling. Intermediate support is refined at $214 (white dashed line) and near term support at $210 (blue dashed line). Lower target is once more at $201 breakout area (light blue dashed line).

270415 - Bitfinex - BTCUSD

27.04.15 – Bitfinex – Daily Candlestick Chart

270415 - Bitfinex - BTCUSD - Dres

27.04.15 – Bitfinex – 12 Hour Candlestick Chart

Overall: Current move might be another counter trend attempt. This can be validated by the 12 hour chart which clearly indicates that each time price tests declining resistance, uptrend stops and reverses after a couple of hours. Nevertheless, momentum indicators seem to be a bit promising. RSI paints a potential positive divergence which may support elevated prices for a little longer. MACD on the other hand, is in negative territory since 24.03.2015. This is a fairly prolonged period under negative pressure and if it does not change soon, it may signify that long term buyers are indeed exhausted. Finally, Stochastic is testing the lower support area <20 and is ready to confirm a small positive cross.

Possible Scenarios :

Long: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $236

Long Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal above $227 – Price Target $232 | Probability: 28%
  2. On a confirmed signal above $232 – Price Target $236 | Probability: 25%

Neutral: Price Range $220-$227

Short: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $201

Short Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal below $220 – Price Target $214 | Probability: 33%
  2. On a confirmed signal below $214 – Price Target $210 | Probability: 24%
  3. On a confirmed signal below $210 – Price Target $201 | Probability: 47%

Our Stance: Neutral.


Price at Bitstamp testing declining resistance | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above $227 – Potential Target $237 | Probability: 28%
Neutral: Price Range $220-$227 | Probability: 29%
Short: On a confirmed signal below $220 – Potential Target $201 | Probability: 43%


Price at BTCe out of range | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:***Non trade-able***

Long: out of range
Neutral: out of range
Short: out of range


Price at Kraken testing declining resistance | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above €211 – Potential Target €221 | Probability: 30%
Neutral: Price Range €204-€211 | Probability: 30%
Short: On a confirmed signal below €204 – Potential Target €185 | Probability: 40%


Price at OKCoin testing declining resistance | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above ¥1404 – Potential Target ¥1480 | Probability: 32%
Neutral: Price Range ¥1356-¥1404 | Probability: 21%
Short: On a confirmed signal below ¥1356 – Potential Target ¥1236 | Probability: 47%


Price at Huobi testing declining resistance | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above ¥1407 – Potential Target ¥1507 | Probability: 36%
Neutral: Price Range ¥1356-¥1407 | Probability: 20%
Short: On a confirmed signal below ¥1356 – Potential Target ¥1236 | Probability: 44%

 

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