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27.02.15 – Bitcoin – Update

Price at Bitfinex below weekly confirmed rejection | 4HR time interval

Overnight action produced a large impulsive candlestick that pierced through two technical resistance levels. A follow up breached the weekly rejection point at $257 and reversed immediately.

Currently weekly estimated long targets have been hit on all reported exchanges apart from Bitstamp and BTCe. Although there are possibilities of retesting the impulsive high(s), market has turned sharply overbought.

If you are already long, it is advisable to book 1/2 of profits and protect remaining positions according to your entry point(s).

On the long side: Recent impulsive moves seem to be fading quickly. A confirmed close above $257 weekly rejection point (red dashed line) is required to increase the possibilities of sustaining higher prices. Upper resistance is estimated at $265 200MA upper bollinger band (blue dashed line).

On the short side: Temporary support is set at $249 (pink dashed line). A reversal below this point will possibly test $241 intermediate support (light blue dashed line). Weekly support area between $228 and $233 (green dashed lines) remains intact.

270215 - Bitfinex - BTCUSD

27.02.15 – Bitfinex – 4HR Candlestick Chart

270215 - Bitfinex - Volume

27.02.15 – Bitfinex – 4HR Volume

Overall: This latest impulsive move does not seem to heavily convince participation. This is evident by the volume chart which clearly shows that the large candle from $237 to $255 was achieved with a buying volume of 10319. The continuation up to $262.8 was met with significant selling that approximately reached 30000, which is almost triple compared to buying. Moreover, the next rally attempt only managed a buying volume of 8634. It can be assumed that once more buyers are eager to sell immediately for a quick profit. All this action has raised momentum at overbought levels. Both RSI and Stochastic are above their higher ranges. Additionally, MACD has confirmed and sustains a positive signal.

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $265

Long Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal above $257 – Price Target $265 | Probability: 33%

Neutral (4HR): Price Range $249-$257

Short: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target range $228-$233

Short Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal below $249 – Price Target $241 | Probability: 33%
  2. On a confirmed signal below $241 – Price Target $233 | Probability: 33%
  3. On a confirmed signal below $233 – Price Target $228 | Probability: 24%

Our Stance: Booked 50% of long positions. Will consider increasing exposure only on a confirmation above $257.


Price at Bitstamp below weekly confirmed rejection | 4HR time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above $257 – Potential Target $264
4HR Temporary Support: $247
4HR Intermediate Support: $241


Price at BTCe below weekly confirmed rejection | 4HR time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above $254 – Potential Target $261 | Probability: 39%
4HR Temporary Support: $239
4HR Intermediate Support: $233


Price at Kraken below weekly confirmed rejection | 4HR time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above €224 – Potential Target €232 | Probability: 39%
4HR Temporary Support: €218
4HR Intermediate Support: €211


Price at OKCoin below weekly confirmed rejection | 4HR time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above ¥1602 – Potential Target ¥1638 | Probability: 39%
4HR Temporary Support: ¥1550
4HR Intermediate Support: ¥1494


Price at Huobi below weekly confirmed rejection | 4HR time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above ¥1600 – Potential Target ¥1639 | Probability: 39%
4HR Temporary Support: ¥1557
4HR Intermediate Support: ¥1493

 

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