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26.02.15 – Bitcoin – Update

Price at Bitfinex testing 100MA support | 4HR time interval

On the long side: Since 23.02.15, not even a single candlestick managed to close above $240. This has raised intermediate resistance at exactly $241 (light blue dashed line), which has been tested almost 6 times and proved solid. It has to be noted that both $248 weekly near term resistance (pink dashed line) and $257 weekly confirmed rejection (red dashed line) remain intact.

On the short side: Price is supported by 100MA (light blue call-out) and 200MA (pink call-out) respectively. It is estimated that a reversal below 200MA will test $233 (weekly support high range). Estimated levels at $228 (weekly support low range), $221 weekly intermediate support (white dashed line) and $216 weekly near term support (blue dashed line) are still valid.

260215 - Bitfinex - BTCUSD

26.02.15 – Bitfinex – 4HR Candlestick Chart

Overall: Market action can be characterized dull at best. RSI is following price and once more needs to reverse at least above <50. MACD is on the verge of producing a possible positive cross. However, it is still a bit early and further confirmation is required. Finally, Stochastic seems to be supporting current momentum but a failure/reversal at this level may lead to temporary weakness.

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $257

Long Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal above $241 – Price Target $248 | Probability: 27%
  2. On a confirmed signal above $248 – Price Target $257 | Probability: 38%

Neutral (4HR): Price Range $233-$241

Short: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $216

Short Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal below $233 – Price Target $228 | Probability: 24%
  2. On a confirmed signal below $228 – Price Target $221 | Probability: 32%
  3. On a confirmed signal below $221 – Price Target $216 | Probability: 25%

Our Stance: Switched to neutral. Waiting on the sidelines.


Price at Bitstamp testing 100MA support | 4HR time interval

Possible Scenarios (unchanged):

Long: On a confirmed signal above $241 – Potential Target $257 | Probability: 39%
Neutral: Price Range $233-$241 | Probability: 30%
Short: On a confirmed signal below $233 – Potential Target $222 | Probability: 31%


Price at BTCe testing 100MA support | 4HR time interval

Possible Scenarios (unchanged):

Long: On a confirmed signal above $235 – Potential Target $256 | Probability: 39%
Neutral: Price Range $226-$235 | Probability: 30%
Short: On a confirmed signal below $226 – Potential Target $218 | Probability: 31%


Price at Kraken testing 100MA support | 4HR time interval

Possible Scenarios (unchanged):

Long: On a confirmed signal above €213 – Potential Target €223 | Probability: 39%
Neutral: Price Range €206-€213 | Probability: 30%
Short: On a confirmed signal below €206 – Potential Target €196 | Probability: 31%


Price at OKCoin testing 100MA support | 4HR time interval

Possible Scenarios (unchanged):

Long: On a confirmed signal above ¥1498 – Potential Target ¥1607 | Probability: 39%
Neutral: Price Range ¥1447-¥1498 | Probability: 30%
Short: On a confirmed signal below ¥1447 – Potential Target ¥1375 | Probability: 31%


Price at Huobi testing 100MA support | 4HR time interval

Possible Scenarios (unchanged):

Long: On a confirmed signal above ¥1499 – Potential Target ¥1606 | Probability: 39%
Neutral: Price Range ¥1449-¥1499 | Probability: 30%
Short: On a confirmed signal below ¥1449 – Potential Target ¥1375 | Probability: 31%

 

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