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23.03.15 – Bitcoin – Weekly Preview

Price at Bitfinex in neutral range | Daily time interval

On the long side: Recent price action has established a neutral range between $262 and $271. A confirmed attempt above $271 temporary resistance (orange dashed line) will possibly struggle near $277 (light blue dashed line), which is the top consolidation range from 04.03.15 to 09.03.15. If price manages to follow through, it may test $282 (pink dashed line) where resistance is strong. Our models suggest that depending on market conditions and if buying volume improves significantly, a break above $282 will have the potential of reaching $292 rejection point (red dashed line).

On the short side: Temporary support at $262 (green dashed line) is approximately the closing price for three consecutive days (19.03.15 – 21.03.15) and needs to hold. A reversal may find support at $255 (white dashed line). It is estimated that a continuation below the latter will increase the possibilities of testing $247 near term support (blue dashed line).

230315 - Bitfinex - BTCUSD

23.03.15 – Bitfinex – Daily Candlestick Chart

Overall: For the past two days market signals have been normalizing. RSI is aligned with price, however, a reversal above <52 is required to hint improvement. MACD paints a converging signal, although, it is too early for a bullish cross. Current pattern is very near the negative momentum territory and must not test it as this may destabilize conditions. Finally, Stochastic has failed once on 16.03.15 and is currently at the same level. A rise above <37 will possibly indicate that market is indeed balancing and that higher prices are expected.

Notice: It seems that short term momentum indicators are improving. This may provide support for 1 to 3 days. Nevertheless, please note that the 3day and Weekly panels display that market environment has not recovered at all. Therefore, overall caution and rigorous position management is advised towards long attempts.

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $292

Long Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal above $271 – Price Target $277 | Probability: 27%
  2. On a confirmed signal above $277 – Price Target $282 | Probability: 25%
  3. On a confirmed signal above $282 – Price Target $292 | Probability: 48%

Neutral: Price Range $261-$272

Short: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $247

Short Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal below $262 – Price Target $255 | Probability: 32%
  2. On a confirmed signal below $255 – Price Target $247 | Probability: 33%

Our Stance: Neutral to short. Potential long attempts will be treated with extreme caution.


Price at Bitstamp in neutral range | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above $270 – Potential Target $289 | Probability: 38%
Neutral: Price Range $262-$270 | Probability: 28%
Short: On a confirmed signal below $262 – Potential Target $248 | Probability: 34%


Price at BTCe in neutral range | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above $269 – Potential Target $287 | Probability: 38%
Neutral: Price Range $260-$269 | Probability: 28%
Short: On a confirmed signal below $260 – Potential Target $243 | Probability: 34%


Price at Kraken in neutral range | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above €251 – Potential Target €276 | Probability: 38%
Neutral: Price Range €242-€251 | Probability: 28%
Short: On a confirmed signal below €242 – Potential Target €229 | Probability: 34%


Price at OKCoin in neutral range | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above ¥1675 – Potential Target ¥1823 | Probability: 38%
Neutral: Price Range ¥1624-¥1675 | Probability: 28%
Short: On a confirmed signal below ¥1624 – Potential Target ¥1531 | Probability: 34%


Price at Huobi in neutral range | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above ¥1675 – Potential Target ¥1823 | Probability: 38%
Neutral: Price Range ¥1624-¥1675 | Probability: 28%
Short: On a confirmed signal below ¥1624 – Potential Target ¥1533 | Probability: 34%

 

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