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20.04.15 – Bitcoin – Weekly Preview

Price at Bitfinex between resistance and support areas | Daily time interval

It has been a long time since an entire week passed without providing any serious trading incentive.

On the long side: On both 16.04.15 and 17.04.15, the lower range of the estimated resistance area was tested twice, successfully rejecting price. Since then, this area has been untouched, which suggests that price must overcome $228 with strong volume in order to increase the possibilities of any success above $231.

On the short side: Recent sideways movement has tested the estimated support area which proved strong. More precisely, price has closed/opened above $222 for the last 4 consecutive days (17.04.15-20.04.15). Subsequently, for potential lower targets to be met, selling must increase significantly.

200415 - Bitfinex - BTCUSD

20.04.15 – Bitfinex – Daily Candlestick Chart

Overall: Momentum indicators hint to improvement, at least temporarily. Since 14.04.15, RSI has been steady <30. However, a confirmation above <40 is required to support higher prices. MACD has managed to produce a converging channel. Up to the time of writing, data shows that a small bullish cross is quite possible. Finally, Stochastic is elevated and has the potential of testing overbought. Such a development may support a brief rally attempt.

Possible Scenarios ***UNCHANGED***:

Long: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $245

Long Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal above $228 – Price Target $231 | Probability: 25%
  2. On a confirmed signal above $231 – Price Target $236 | Probability: 36%
  3. On a confirmed signal above $236 – Price Target $241 | Probability: 38%
  4. On a confirmed signal above $241 – Price Target $245 | Probability: 29%

Neutral: Price Range $222-$228

Short: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $201

Short Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal below $222 – Price Target $219 | Probability: 25%
  2. On a confirmed signal below $219 – Price Target $215 | Probability: 31%
  3. On a confirmed signal below $215 – Price Target $210 | Probability: 42%
  4. On a confirmed signal below $210 – Price Target $201 | Probability: 50%

Our Stance: Neutral to long.


Price at Bitstamp between resistance and support areas | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above $229 – Potential Target $245 | Probability: 36%
Neutral: Price Range $223-$229 | Probability: 24%
Short: On a confirmed signal below $223 – Potential Target $201 | Probability: 40%


Price at BTCe between resistance and support areas | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above $224 – Potential Target $238 | Probability: 33%
Neutral: Price Range $218-$224 | Probability: 25%
Short: On a confirmed signal below $218 – Potential Target $196 | Probability: 42%


Price at Kraken between resistance and support areas | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above €216 – Potential Target €236 | Probability: 36%
Neutral: Price Range €210-€216 | Probability: 20%
Short: On a confirmed signal below €210 – Potential Target €185 | Probability: 44%


Price at OKCoin between resistance and support areas | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above ¥1417 – Potential Target ¥1521 | Probability: 31%
Neutral: Price Range ¥1375-¥1417 | Probability: 25%
Short: On a confirmed signal below ¥1375 – Potential Target ¥1236 | Probability: 44%


Price at Huobi between resistance and support areas | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above ¥1418 – Potential Target ¥1537 | Probability: 30%
Neutral: Price Range ¥1378-¥1418 | Probability: 25%
Short: On a confirmed signal below ¥1378 – Potential Target ¥1236 | Probability: 45%

 

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