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18.05.15 – Bitcoin – Weekly Preview

Price at Bitfinex testing temporary support | Daily time interval

On the long side: Past five-day gyrations have established temporary resistance at $237 (orange dashed line). If price manages to push through with good momentum, it will possibly test intermediate resistance at $240.50 (pink dashed line). A bit further above rests $244.50, that is a 6-day rejection point/area (purple dashed line) which is quite strong. Upper target is estimated at $249 near term resistance (red dashed line), which is a confirmed double rejection point (08.05.15 – 09.05.15).

On the short side: Temporary daily support is at $232 (green dashed line). A reversal below will increase the possibilities of testing $228 intermediate resistance (white dashed line). Our models suggest that further weakness / downside, will test $220-$222 near term support area (double blue dashed lines).

180515 - Bitfinex - BTCUSD

18.05.15 – Bitfinex – Daily Candlestick Chart

Overall: Following five days of consolidation, market seems to be getting exhausted. At the time of writing there is no clear sign of direction and momentum indicators hint to indecision. RSI is weak and struggling to provide any significant action above <50. Additionally, MACD maintains a bearish cross since 15.05.15 but is still on positive grounds. However, if it fails below >0, selling pressure may increase dramatically. Finally, Stochastic RSI is testing lower and oversold areas since 14.05.15.

Possible Scenarios :

Long: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $249

Long Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal above $237 – Price Target $240.50 | Probability: 28%
  2. On a confirmed signal above $240.50 – Price Target $244.50 | Probability: 32%
  3. On a confirmed signal above $244.50 – Price Target $249 | Probability: 38%

Neutral: Price Range $232-$237

Short: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $220

Short Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal below $237 – Price Target $228 | Probability: 32%
  2. On a confirmed signal below $228 – Price Target $222 | Probability: 40%
  3. On a confirmed signal below $222 – Price Target $220 | Probability: 17%

Our Stance: Neutral to short. Although, active short positions are managed with tight stops.


Price at Bitstamp testing temporary support | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above $237 – Potential Target $247 | Probability: 36%
Neutral: Price Range $232-$237 | Probability: 18%
Short: On a confirmed signal below $232 – Potential Target $219 | Probability: 46%


Price at BTCe testing temporary support | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above $238 – Potential Target $248 | Probability: 32%
Neutral: Price Range $233-$238 | Probability: 19%
Short: On a confirmed signal below $233 – Potential Target $217 | Probability: 49%


Price at Kraken testing temporary support | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above €208 – Potential Target €220 | Probability: 46%
Neutral: Price Range €204-€208 | Probability: 16%
Short: On a confirmed signal below €212 – Potential Target €194 | Probability: 38%


Price at OKCoin testing temporary support | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above ¥1470 – Potential Target ¥1549 | Probability: 40%
Neutral: Price Range ¥1448-¥1470 | Probability: 12%
Short: On a confirmed signal below ¥1448 – Potential Target ¥1353 | Probability: 48%


Price at Huobi testing temporary support | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above ¥1469 – Potential Target ¥1550 | Probability: 41%
Neutral: Price Range ¥1442-¥1469 | Probability: 14%
Short: On a confirmed signal below ¥1442 – Potential Target ¥1354 | Probability: 45%

 

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