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16.06.15 – Bitfinex Update

Price at Bitfinex at critical resistance | Daily time interval

It took a rather long time of soft activity to finally manage and hit resistance at $241.

If you are currently long, it is advisable to protect positions and even consider booking 1/3 of profits. Remaining positions shall be protected according to your entry points.

On the long side: Temporary resistance at $241 is quite critical (green dashed line). A strong push will be required to test $245 intermediate resistance (purple dashed line) where also the 50MA higher bollinger band resistance stands (green call-out). If price manages to clear this area with confidence, then it is quite possible that it will meet $249 near term resistance (pink dashed line). Such value which has been last seen during April. Our models suggest that the highest target at least for this week is at $254 breakdown area from 08.04.15 (red dashed line).

On the short side: Temporary support stands at $237 which is the latest breakout (green dashed line). A reversal will find support at $232 (white dashed line). Adequate support is established at $228 which is the consolidation and breakout area from 13.06.15 (light blue dashed line). It is estimated that prolonged weakness will increase the possibilities of testing $223 near term support (blue dashed line).

160615 - Bitfinex - BTCUSD

16.06.15 – Bitfinex – Daily Candlestick Chart

Overall: Daily transaction volume is not exceptional, which means that it has to increase significantly to assist any further continuation to the upside. Currently, RSI is steady above <58 and may attempt to test the overbought area. MACD maintains a wide signal that tests the lower grounds of the positive territory. Any reversal at this point may lead prices lower. Finally, Stochastic RSI is overextended, counting almost eight days on the overbought area. This is a rare occurrence and it is quite possible that sooner than expected a turnaround may develop.

Possible Scenarios :

Long: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $254

Long Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal above $241 – Price Target $245 | Probability: 31%
  2. On a confirmed signal above $245 – Price Target $249 | Probability: 33%
  3. On a confirmed signal above $249 – Price Target $254 | Probability: 38%

Neutral: Price Range $237-$241

Short: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $223

Short Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal below $237 – Price Target $232 | Probability: 38%
  2. On a confirmed signal below $232 – Price Target $228 | Probability: 31%
  3. On a confirmed signal below $228 – Price Target $223 | Probability: 36%

Our Stance: Protecting long positions with 1/2 of profits taken. Considering short entries as long as price continues to struggle between $241-$245.

 

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