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14.10.14 – Btc-e – LTC/USD

Price on Btc-e is trending above the 200MA (Middle BB) | 60min time interval

For more than 96hrs, price action on Litecoin has been pretty soft, with an approximate range between $3.60 to $3.80. During this period, there has been an interesting development. More precisely, on the 12th of October, price breached above the 200MA (Middle BB) at $3.75, it reached $3.89 and 21hrs later retested $3.75. This retest established a short term support at this very point.

Since then, both the Upper and Lower 200MA Bollinger Bands have contracted significantly, with the 200MA (Middle BB) continuously supporting price at $3.75.

It has to be noted that this price movement has been assisted by the RSI, the 50MA and just recently the Parabolic SAR.

On the long side: The Stochastic indicates a possible breakout to test the Upper 200MA BB at $3.96. This will be confirmed with a spike in buying volume and a reversal of the MACD signal (orange line) to the upside. Ideally, if the breakout occurs, it will increase the odds for continuation by riding the Upper 200MA BB. However, it is a bit early for the latter to be justified.

On the short side: A breach below the $3.75 support (with a follow through), will increase the probabilities of reaching the Lower 200MA BB at $3.56. Any strong break below this level will have negative short term implications.

Btce-LTCUSD-141014

Btc-e – LTC/USD – 60min Candlestick Chart

Overall: At the time of writing, most indicators support the possibility of a breakout to the upside. Nevertheless, buying volume must increase to at least above 3K for this to materialize.

Outcome Probabilities:

Long: 40% – Price Target $3.96.
Neutral: 40% – Price Range $3.75-$3.86.
Short 20% – Price Target $3.57.

Our Stance: Maintaining long exposure, will add only if breakout occurs.

 

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One Response to 14.10.14 – Btc-e – LTC/USD

  1. gameoffers October 14, 2014 at 12:52 #

    Quite a timely call! Good stuff!

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