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14.02.15 – Bitcoin – Update

Price at Bitfinex testing rejection point | 4HR time interval

Weekly potential long targets have been hit on all exchanges (except Kraken).

If you are already long, it is advisable to book 1/2 of profits and manage your remaining positions according to your entry point(s).

On the long side: Market performance has been rather impulsive, with long candles that provided very quick trades. Buying volume has improved but is not very strong and must increase to support a continuation. Currently price is testing $248 (weekly near term resistance point) which now serves as temporary resistance (orange dashed line). It is estimated that a breach above today’s high approximately at $253 intermediate resistance (pink dashed line) will increase the possibilities of reaching $259 (red dashed line) where resistance is heavy.

On the short side: Temporary support is established at $239 (green dashed line) which is the base of the last impulsive move. A breach will possibly drive price to $233 intermediate support (light blue dashed line). Near term support is set at $226 (white dashed line).

140215 - Bitfinex - BTCUSD

14.02.15 – Bitfinex – 4HR Candlestick Chart

Overall: Recent quick impulsive moves have produced overextended positive signals. RSI is in a possible double top formation. MACD is positive but it paints a very steep and wide signal that needs to normalize. Finally, while price reached a higher high, Stochastic formed a lower high, which might be an early signal of consolidation or weakness and must not be ignored.

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $259

Long Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal above $248 – Price Target $253 | Probability: 25%
  2. On a confirmed signal above $253 – Price Target $259 | Probability: 30%

Neutral: Price Range $239-$248

Short: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $226

Short Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal below $239 – Price Target $233 | Probability: 30%
  2. On a confirmed signal below $233 – Price Target $226 | Probability: 32%

Our Stance: Neutral. Closed more than 1/2 of long positions.


Price at Bitstamp testing rejection point | 4HR time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above $249 – Potential Target $260 | Probability: 31%
Neutral: Price Range $241-$249 | Probability: 32%
Short: On a confirmed signal below $241 – Potential Target $224 | Probability: 37%


Price at BTCe testing rejection point | 4HR time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above $244 – Potential Target $254 | Probability: 31%
Neutral: Price Range $235-$244 | Probability: 32%
Short: On a confirmed signal below $235 – Potential Target $221 | Probability: 37%


Price at Kraken testing rejection point | 4HR time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above €212 – Potential Target €228 | Probability: 31%
Neutral: Price Range €207-€212 | Probability: 32%
Short: On a confirmed signal below €207 – Potential Target €197 | Probability: 37%


Price at OKCoin testing rejection point | 4HR time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above ¥1552 – Potential Target ¥1638 | Probability: 31%
Neutral: Price Range ¥1488-¥1552 | Probability: 32%
Short: On a confirmed signal below ¥1488 – Potential Target ¥1398 | Probability: 37%


Price at Huobi testing rejection point | 4HR time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above ¥1551 – Potential Target ¥1639 | Probability: 31%
Neutral: Price Range ¥1488-¥1551 | Probability: 32%
Short: On a confirmed signal below ¥1488 – Potential Target ¥1399 | Probability: 37%

 

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