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13.04.15 – Bitcoin – Weekly Preview

Price at Bitfinex between resistance and support areas | Daily time interval

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On the long side: Data suggests that a resistance zone is established between $228 and $231 (double orange dashed lines). A strong breach will have to test today’s $236 breakdown confirmation (purple dashed line). If price manages to head higher, it is quite possible to test intermediate resistance at $241 (pink dashed line). Near term resistance is estimated at $245 (red dashed line).

On the short side: Recent market action has been characterized by waterfall type downward continuations. Identified support area rests between $219 and $222 (double green dashed lines). Price will require to pierce this area with another long candle in order to directly test $215 intermediate support (white dashed line), which is quite adequate, with seven straight days closing higher (from 31.01.15 until 06.02.15). A reversal below the latter will increase the possibilities of testing $210 near term support (blue dashed line). Our models suggest that a continuation may test $201 breakout support from 17.01.15 (light blue dashed line).

130415 - Bitfinex - BTCUSD

13.04.15 – Bitfinex – Daily Candlestick Chart

Overall: Many positive signals that developed during the past days failed significantly. At the time of writing, indicators seem to be attempting to stabilize once more. RSI has weakened along with price and currently tests the lower range support. It is evident that a reversal above <40 may be required to improve momentum. Moreover, for the past five days, MACD maintains a negative cross with a widening channel. In total, MACD is under negative pressure since the 24th of March, which counts almost 17 days up to now. If it does not manage to produce any positive cross or at least a converging channel, then lower prices may be quite possible. Finally, Stochastic follows suit as it has been extremely weak for six consecutive days since 09.04.15.

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $245

Long Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal above $228 – Price Target $231 | Probability: 25%
  2. On a confirmed signal above $231 – Price Target $236 | Probability: 36%
  3. On a confirmed signal above $236 – Price Target $241 | Probability: 38%
  4. On a confirmed signal above $241 – Price Target $245 | Probability: 29%

Neutral: Price Range $222-$228

Short: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $201

Short Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal below $222 – Price Target $219 | Probability: 25%
  2. On a confirmed signal below $219 – Price Target $215 | Probability: 31%
  3. On a confirmed signal below $215 – Price Target $210 | Probability: 42%
  4. On a confirmed signal below $210 – Price Target $201 | Probability: 50%

Our Stance: Maintain a neutral to short approach, especially since last week. Market continues to be extremely fragile. However, will immediately flip to possible longs on any positive developments.


Price at Bitstamp between resistance and support areas | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above $229 – Potential Target $245 | Probability: 36%
Neutral: Price Range $223-$229 | Probability: 24%
Short: On a confirmed signal below $223 – Potential Target $201 | Probability: 40%


Price at BTCe between resistance and support areas | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above $224 – Potential Target $238 | Probability: 33%
Neutral: Price Range $218-$224 | Probability: 25%
Short: On a confirmed signal below $218 – Potential Target $196 | Probability: 42%


Price at Kraken between resistance and support areas | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above €216 – Potential Target €236 | Probability: 36%
Neutral: Price Range €210-€216 | Probability: 20%
Short: On a confirmed signal below €210 – Potential Target €185 | Probability: 44%


Price at OKCoin between resistance and support areas | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above ¥1417 – Potential Target ¥1521 | Probability: 31%
Neutral: Price Range ¥1375-¥1417 | Probability: 25%
Short: On a confirmed signal below ¥1375 – Potential Target ¥1236 | Probability: 44%


Price at Huobi between resistance and support areas | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above ¥1418 – Potential Target ¥1537 | Probability: 30%
Neutral: Price Range ¥1378-¥1418 | Probability: 25%
Short: On a confirmed signal below ¥1378 – Potential Target ¥1236 | Probability: 45%

 

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