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13.01.15 – Bitcoin – Update

Price at Bitfinex testing Weekly 50MA lower BB support | 1HR time interval

Very strong overnight selling led to a test of $235 Weekly 50MA lower bollinger band support.

On the long side: Multiple resistance levels have been identified. First, price must overcome $241 temporary resistance (orange dotted line). A continuation may possibly test $250 rejection area (pink dotted line) where resistance is strong. If price manages to break $250 with confidence, then $259 intermediate resistance (purple dotted line) will be a reasonable target. Upper target rests at $268 breakdown resistance (red dotted line).

On the short side: A breach below $232 temporary support (green dotted line) will retest $226 temporary double bottom support (white dotted line). If $226 does not hold, price will possibly test $218 intermediate support (light blue dotted line), which comes from the daily candle close on 03.11.13. It is estimated that a failure below $218 may drive price down to $205 support zone (blue dotted line). The latter is of significant importance as it had provided solid support from 21.10.13 to 31.10.13, right before the large parabolic move commenced.

130115 - Bitfinex - BTCUSD

13.01.15 – Bitfinex – 1HR Candlestick Chart

Overall: Indicators have not been very reliable as of late. RSI paints an early positive divergence, while a lower-low in price has been followed with a higher-high RSI value. However, this must not be taken into strong consideration yet. MACD continues to be in negative momentum territory for 89 hours, which is quite severe. Current signal is not wide enough and a strong ascending move is required to hint possible stability. Stochastic is overextended, as it has been overbought for almost 7 hours. If it manages to remain elevated, price may consolidate, although, a reversal at this point is quite possible.

Notice: Our models suggest that this corrective move may not be over yet. Circumstances indicate that before establishing a solid bottom, another leg down is possible from current levels. Any long trade(s) should be very carefully managed.

Possible Scenarios:

Long Price Setup: On a confirmed break above $241 – Price Target $268 | Probability: 32%
Neutral Price Range: $232-$241 | Probability: 29%
Short Price Setup: On a confirmed break below $232 – Price Target $205 | Probability: 39%

Our Stance: Short since last confirmation. Any long attempts will be treated as counter trend bounces.


Price at Bitstamp testing Weekly 50MA lower BB support | 1HR time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed break above $239 – Target $266 | Probability: 32%
Neutral: Price Range $226-$239 | Probability: 29%
Short: On a confirmed break below $226- Target $204 | Probability: 39%


Price at BTCe testing Weekly 50MA lower BB support | 1HR time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed break above $239 – Target $263 | Probability: 32%
Neutral: Price Range $226-$239 | Probability: 29%
Short: On a confirmed break below $226 – Target $198 | Probability: 39%


Price at Kraken testing Weekly 50MA lower BB support | 1HR time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed break above €204 – Target €226 | Probability: 32%
Neutral: Price Range €198-€204 | Probability: 29%
Short: On a confirmed break below €198 – Target €172 | Probability: 39%


Price at OKCoin testing Weekly 50MA lower BB support | 1HR time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed break above ¥1456 – Target ¥1647 | Probability: 32%
Neutral: Price Range ¥1422-¥1456 | Probability: 29%
Short: On a confirmed break below ¥1422 – Target ¥1302 | Probability: 39%


Price at Huobi testing Weekly 50MA lower BB support | 1HR time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed break above ¥1458 – Target ¥1649 | Probability: 32%
Neutral: Price Range ¥1422-¥1458 | Probability: 29%
Short: On a confirmed break below ¥1422 – Target ¥1290 | Probability: 39%

 

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