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11.05.15 – Bitcoin – Weekly Preview

Price at Bitfinex between 50MA support and 100MA resistance | Daily time interval

On the long side: Temporary resistance is estimated at $244.50 (orange dashed line). A break above will not be enough to sustain an uptrend as price will have to confirm a close over 100MA resistance (light blue call-out) for overall stability. Such an event will possibly re-test $249 intermediate resistance (pink dashed line) which proved adequate twice (08.05.15 & 09.05.15). A continuation above $249 will meet medium resistance up to $254 breakdown point (purple dashed line). If market turns strong, $261 rejection point (red dashed line) could be a realistic upper target.

On the short side: Temporary support rests at $240.50 (green dashed line). If market resolves to the downside, a daily close below 50MA (white call-out) will be required to confirm general weakness. A break below $237 intermediate support (white dashed line), will increase the possibilities of testing $231 double daily support (light blue dashed line). Our models suggest that near term support for this week rests at $228 (blue dashed line).

110515 - Bitfinex - BTCUSD

11.05.15 – Bitfinex – Daily Candlestick Chart

Overall: Additional sideways action is expected for at least 1-2 days. Moreover, for a significant move to either direction, buying or selling volume will have to increase at least above 25000. Since 13.04.15, RSI has been steadily advancing, however, it failed to breach above <58. MACD is testing positive grounds for the past four days with a rather stable signal. Nevertheless, Stochastic RSI provides a bit of uncertainty. Since 21.04.15 it maintains a negative divergence, as it fails to confirm each higher high in price.

Possible Scenarios :

Long: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $261

Long Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal above $244.50 – Price Target $249 | Probability: 38%
  2. On a confirmed signal above $249 – Price Target $254 | Probability: 37%
  3. On a confirmed signal above $254 – Price Target $261 | Probability: 42%

Neutral: Price Range $240.50-$244.50

Short: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $228

Short Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal below $240.50 – Price Target $237 | Probability: 29%
  2. On a confirmed signal below $237 – Price Target $231 | Probability: 44%
  3. On a confirmed signal below $231 – Price Target $228 | Probability: 24%

Our Stance: Neutral. Although, will consider short positions on signs of early weakness.


Price at Bitstamp between 50MA support and 100MA resistance | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above $243 – Potential Target $261 | Probability: 43%
Neutral: Price Range $239-$243 | Probability: 22%
Short: On a confirmed signal below $239 – Potential Target $227 | Probability: 35%


Price at BTCe between 50MA support and 100MA resistance | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above $244 – Potential Target $258 | Probability: 40%
Neutral: Price Range $240-$244 | Probability: 24%
Short: On a confirmed signal below $240 – Potential Target $230 | Probability: 36%


Price at Kraken between 50MA support and 100MA resistance | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above €215 – Potential Target €236 | Probability: 42%
Neutral: Price Range €212-€215 | Probability: 29%
Short: On a confirmed signal below €212 – Potential Target €202 | Probability: 29%


Price at OKCoin between 50MA support and 100MA resistance | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above ¥1514 – Potential Target ¥1617 | Probability: 42%
Neutral: Price Range ¥1485-¥1514 | Probability: 25%
Short: On a confirmed signal below ¥1485 – Potential Target ¥1420 | Probability: 33%


Price at Huobi between 50MA support and 100MA resistance | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above ¥1516 – Potential Target ¥1620 | Probability: 43%
Neutral: Price Range ¥1489-¥1516 | Probability: 24%
Short: On a confirmed signal below ¥1489 – Potential Target ¥1422 | Probability: 33%

 

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