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09.12.14 – Bitcoin – Target Update

Price at Bitstamp hit technical support | Daily time interval

Overnight, $365 50MA support was violated and price experienced a rapid sell-off. Estimated technical support at $346 was hit.

On the long side: A rally attempt would not be ruled out at this point. However, price needs to overcome $354 temporary resistance (green dotted line) area with strong buying volume. If it manages to do so, the next possible target is estimated at $365 50MA (white dotted line) where the breakdown was confirmed, which now serves as resistance.

On the short side: Technical support at $346 proved sufficient up to this point. A confirmation below may initiate a continuation lower. Strong support rests at $334 (yellow dotted line) where two breakout rallies occurred, first on 08.10.14 and then once more on 06.11.14. Our models suggest that a confirmation below the latter may increase the possibilities of price visiting $322-$326 double bottom support area (light blue dotted lines), established on 06.10.14 and 03.11.14 respectively.

091214 - Bitstamp - BTCUSD

09.12.14 – Bitstamp – Daily Candlestick Chart

Overall: Indicators confirmed price weakness. RSI is still weak but not yet oversold. MACD is testing the negative momentum territory and a prolonged stay may assist further weakness. On the other hand, Stochastic has entered oversold which indicates possibilities of a temporary rally attempt. If the latter fails, then another price leg-down may occur.

Possible Scenarios:

Long Price Setup: On a confirmed break above $354 – Price Target $365 | Probability: 35%
Neutral Price Range: $346-$354 | Probability: 26%
Short Price Setup: On a confirmed break below $346 – Price Target $334 | Probability: 39%

Our Stance: Neutral to short with 1/2 short positions closed. Willing to enter temporary long on relevant confirmation.


Price at BTCe hit technical support | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed break above $350 – Target $360 | Probability: 35%
Neutral: Price Range $340-$350 | Probability: 26%
Short: On a confirmed break below $340 – Target $325 | Probability: 39%


Price at Huobi hit technical support | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed break above ¥2174 – Target ¥2238 | Probability: 35%
Neutral: Price Range ¥2102-¥2174 | Probability: 26%
Short: On a confirmed break below ¥2102 – Target ¥2004 | Probability: 39%


Price at OKCoin hit technical support | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed break above ¥2175 – Target ¥2240 | Probability: 35%
Neutral: Price Range ¥2101-¥2175 | Probability: 26%
Short: On a confirmed break below ¥2101 – Target ¥2000 | Probability: 39%


Price at Kraken hit technical support | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed break above €288 – Target €295 | Probability: 35%
Neutral: Price Range €278-€288 | Probability: 26%
Short: On a confirmed break below €278 – Target €260 | Probability: 39%

 

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