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04.05.15 – Bitcoin – Weekly Preview

Price at Bitfinex below temporary resistance | Daily time interval

This week marks the 3rd in a row, during which market is attempting to produce a sustained rally.

On the long side: Past two day action has established resistance at $241 (orange dashed line). A break above will find little room up to $243 intermediate resistance (pink dashed line). The latter is the point at which price has been rejected twice, on 03.05.15 and today. A strong break above $243 may produce better results, while adequate resistance rests approximately at $250 (purple dashed line). Upper target is estimated at $254 breakdown point (red dashed line).

On the short side: Temporary support rests at $237 (green dashed line). This is an approximate area that has been tested vigorously since late February. A continuation below will find support at $231 (white dashed line), where a double daily close has been confirmed on 01.05.15 and 02.05.15 respectively. If $231 breaks, price will quickly find support at $228 (light blue dashed line). Our models suggest that a prolonged weakness will increase the possibilities of testing $222 near term support (blue dashed line).

040515 - Bitfinex - BTCUSD

04.05.15 – Bitfinex – Daily Candlestick Chart

Overall: Recent weeks have been characterized by a small breaks to the upside that have been met with decent resistance. RSI follows the latest attempt but needs to rise above <58 to provide stability. MACD has produced a widening signal which has the potential of testing the positive territory, however, this is a bit soon to tell as more confirmations are required. Finally, Stochastic is overbought for the fourth straight day which implies that there could possibly be 1-2 additional days of sideways movement ahead.

Possible Scenarios :

Long: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $254

Long Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal above $241 – Price Target $243 | Probability: 27%
  2. On a confirmed signal above $243 – Price Target $250 | Probability: 44%
  3. On a confirmed signal above $250 – Price Target $254 | Probability: 31%

Neutral: Price Range $237-$241

Short: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $222

Short Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal below $237 – Price Target $231 | Probability: 40%
  2. On a confirmed signal below $231 – Price Target $228 | Probability: 23%
  3. On a confirmed signal below $228 – Price Target $222 | Probability: 40%

Our Stance: Neutral to short. If signals reverse, will be very conservative towards long exposure.


Price at Bitstamp below temporary resistance | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above $240 – Potential Target $254 | Probability: 41%
Neutral: Price Range $236-$240 | Probability: 17%
Short: On a confirmed signal below $236 – Potential Target $223 | Probability: 42%


Price at BTCe below temporary resistance | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above $241 – Potential Target $250 | Probability: 29%
Neutral: Price Range $237-$241 | Probability: 23%
Short: On a confirmed signal below $237 – Potential Target $219 | Probability: 48%


Price at Kraken below temporary resistance | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above €214 – Potential Target €235 | Probability: 40%
Neutral: Price Range €210-€214 | Probability: 33%
Short: On a confirmed signal below €210 – Potential Target €205 | Probability: 27%


Price at OKCoin below temporary resistance | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above ¥1488 – Potential Target ¥1574 | Probability: 41%
Neutral: Price Range ¥1462-¥1488 | Probability: 16%
Short: On a confirmed signal below ¥1462 – Potential Target ¥1369 | Probability: 43%


Price at Huobi below temporary resistance | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above ¥1490 – Potential Target ¥1574 | Probability: 42%
Neutral: Price Range ¥1468-¥1490 | Probability: 15%
Short: On a confirmed signal below ¥1468 – Potential Target ¥1372 | Probability: 43%

 

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