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02.06.15 – Bitcoin – Weekly Preview

Price at Bitfinex testing 50MA Lower BB | Daily time interval

Prolonged sideways movement, exhausted traders as expected, eventually triggering estimated short entries.

If you are already short, it is advisable to book 1/3 of profits and protect remaining positions according to your entry (e.g. $225, $228, etc.).

On the long side: At the time of writing, market could stabilize if price confidently breaks $225 daily temporary resistance (orange dashed line). Such move will find resistance near $228 (light blue dashed line), which is the closing price of the third down leg. Likewise, a continuation further above, will test the daily close of the second down leg at $232 (pink dashed line). If price manages to reverse in such manner, the most possible target would be to test $237 breakdown area (purple dashed line). Ultimately, the highest target at this point is estimated at $241 near term resistance (red dashed line).

On the short side: Current situation is straightforward as price is testing the 50MA lower bollinger band support at $220 (green dashed line). This is quite a significant area, which has been providing support in numerous recent occasions, from 13.04.15 to 18.04.15, from 26.04.25 to 27.04.15 and finally yesterday (01.06.15). Our models suggest that a reversal below this area, will provide further instability, testing intermediate support at $214 (white dashed line). Additional weakness will increase the possibilities of testing $210 near term support (blue dashed line).

020615 - Bitfinex - BTCUSD

02.06.15 – Bitfinex – Daily Candlestick Chart

Overall: Market participation is clearly not enough to maintain higher prices, which reverse after a couple of days. RSI is testing the lower support area and needs to reverse above <37 to hint temporary improvement. MACD has entered the negative territory on the 29th of May and has maintained a wide bearish signal since. Finally, Stochastic RSI attempts to find a bottom as it has been oversold for the past three days. A small positive cross may assist a temporary rally attempt.

Possible Scenarios :

Long: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $241

Long Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal above $225 – Price Target $228 | Probability: 21%
  2. On a confirmed signal above $228 – Price Target $232 | Probability: 33%
  3. On a confirmed signal above $232 – Price Target $237 | Probability: 42%
  4. On a confirmed signal above $237 – Price Target $241 | Probability: 31%

Neutral: Price Range $220-$225

Short: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $210

Short Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal below $220 – Price Target $214 | Probability: 43%
  2. On a confirmed signal below $214 – Price Target $210 | Probability: 27%

Our Stance: Managing profits on short positions. Willing to enter long for a quick trade.


Price at Bitstamp testing 50MA Lower BB | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above $225 – Potential Target $240 | Probability: 40%
Neutral: Price Range $221-$225 | Probability: 23%
Short: On a confirmed signal below $221 – Potential Target $210 | Probability: 37%


Price at BTCe testing 50MA Lower BB | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above $227 – Potential Target $243 | Probability: 44%
Neutral: Price Range $223-$227 | Probability: 12%
Short: On a confirmed signal below $223 – Potential Target $207 | Probability: 44%


Price at Kraken testing 50MA Lower BB | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above €204 – Potential Target €216 | Probability: 33%
Neutral: Price Range €202-€204 | Probability: 26%
Short: On a confirmed signal below €202 – Potential Target €180 | Probability: 41%


Price at OKCoin testing 50MA Lower BB | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above ¥1393 – Potential Target ¥1503 | Probability: 40%
Neutral: Price Range ¥1366-¥1393 | Probability: 22%
Short: On a confirmed signal below ¥1366 – Potential Target ¥1281 | Probability: 38%


Price at Huobi testing 50MA Lower BB | Daily time interval

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On a confirmed signal above ¥1392 – Potential Target ¥1503 | Probability: 41%
Neutral: Price Range ¥1375-¥1392 | Probability: 18%
Short: On a confirmed signal below ¥1375 – Potential Target ¥1284 | Probability: 41%

 

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