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01.03.15 – Bitfinex – Update

Price at Bitfinex testing temporary resitance | 4HR time interval

Estimated support at $249 (4HR interval) provided strong for almost 8 hours. Long trade above $257 has been active for the past 2 hours.

Recently updated long target(s) have been hit only at Bitfinex, OKCoin and Huobi, providing very quick trade(s).

If you are already long it is advisable to protect positions at or above confirmed points ($257, ¥1602 and ¥1600 respectively).

On the long side: Currently, temporary resistance rests at $265 (blue dashed line) which has been breached once. A confirmation will find little room up to $269 intermediate resistance (yellow dashed line). It is estimated that a strong follow-through above the latter will test $275 double rejection point (white dashed line).

On the short side: Temporary support is set at $257 (red dashed line). A reversal will increase the possibilities of retesting $249 (pink dashed line) which now serves as intermediate support. Our models suggest that a continuation may drive price down to $241 near term support (light blue dashed line).

010315 - Bitfinex - BTCUSD

01.03.15 – Bitfinex – 4HR Candlestick Chart

Overall: Another prolonged consolidation followed by a sharp impulsive move to the upside. Momentum seems to be improving. RSI confirms recent rally attempt, however, it paints a small negative divergence that must not be ignored. MACD is largely in positive momentum territory and hints to another possible bullish cross, although, the signal is not strong enough yet. Finally, Stochastic has reversed form oversold and must maintain it’s upright form in order to provide stability.

Possible Scenarios:

Long: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target $275

Long Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal above $265 – Price Target $269 | Probability: 20%
  2. On a confirmed signal above $269 – Price Target $275 | Probability: 33%

Neutral (4HR): Price Range $257-$265

Short: On appropriate confirmations – Potential Target range $241

Short Target Breakdown:

  1. On a confirmed signal below $257 – Price Target $249 | Probability: 40%
  2. On a confirmed signal below $249 – Price Target $241 | Probability: 33%

Our Stance: Booked 2/3 of longs for a quick trade. Remaining positions protected just above $257. A bit skeptical on increasing long exposure due to current RSI negative divergence.

 

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